Anges Verts 1–0 Motema Pembe: Result & Stats

Anges Verts

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Motema Pembe

4/11/2026

Ligue 1 · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Anges Verts30%

×Draw28%

Motema Pembe42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Anges VertsExpected goals in this matchMotema Pembe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.31

Anges Verts

1.05

Motema Pembe

1.31

Motema Pembe creates 25% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 83 away

1.16

creates per match

1.14

1.48

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Anges Verts

1.16

Motema Pembe

1.14

allows per match

Anges Verts

1.48

Motema Pembe

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Anges Verts+0.00on par

Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anges Verts ↓

Motema Pembe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Anges Verts or draw

58%

Anges Verts or Motema Pembe

72%

Draw or Motema Pembe

70%

Winning margin

Anges Verts wins by 2+

11%

Motema Pembe wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Anges Verts 1+ goals

65%

Anges Verts 2+ goals

28%

Anges Verts 3+ goals

9%

Motema Pembe 1+ goals

73%

Motema Pembe 2+ goals

38%

Motema Pembe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Anges Verts (draw refunded)

41%

Motema Pembe (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anges Verts at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anges Verts attack 1.16 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + Anges Verts defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Anges Verts scores more

30%

level

28%

Motema Pembe scores more

42%

Motema Pembe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Motema Pembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff