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Motala vs IF Karlstad — Ettan - Norra 2019

Motala
Motala
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
IF Karlstad
IF Karlstad
8/6/2022Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 16Motala Idrottspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Motala38%
×Draw24%
IF Karlstad38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motala
1.54
IF Karlstad
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 97 away

creates per match

Motala
1.67
IF Karlstad
1.56

allows per match

Motala
1.47
IF Karlstad
1.41

finishing

Motala+0.00on par
IF Karlstad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motala ↓

IF Karlstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Motala or draw
62%
Motala or IF Karlstad
76%
Draw or IF Karlstad
62%

Winning margin

Motala wins by 2+
19%
IF Karlstad wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Motala 1+ goals
79%
Motala 2+ goals
45%
Motala 3+ goals
20%
IF Karlstad 1+ goals
78%
IF Karlstad 2+ goals
45%
IF Karlstad 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Motala (draw refunded)
51%
IF Karlstad (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motala at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

IF Karlstad away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motala attack 1.67 + IF Karlstad defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.54

IF Karlstad attack 1.56 + Motala defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Motala scores more
38%
level
24%
IF Karlstad scores more
38%

Motala at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Motala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: Motala 1–3 IF Karlstad

IF Karlstad beat Motala 3-1 in Ettan - Norra on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Motala Idrottspark in Motala.