IF Karlstad 2–3 Motala: Result & Stats

IF Karlstad

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Motala

5/13/2023

Ettan - Norra · Norra - 7Sola Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

IF Karlstad51%

×Draw22%

Motala27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IF KarlstadExpected goals in this matchMotala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.37

IF Karlstad

1.95

Motala

1.37

IF Karlstad creates 42% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 30 away

1.97

creates per match

1.37

1.36

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

IF Karlstad

1.97

Motala

1.37

allows per match

IF Karlstad

1.36

Motala

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IF Karlstad+0.00on par

Motala+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IF Karlstad ↓

Motala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

IF Karlstad or draw

73%

IF Karlstad or Motala

78%

Draw or Motala

49%

Winning margin

IF Karlstad wins by 2+

29%

Motala wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

IF Karlstad 1+ goals

86%

IF Karlstad 2+ goals

58%

IF Karlstad 3+ goals

31%

Motala 1+ goals

75%

Motala 2+ goals

40%

Motala 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

IF Karlstad (draw refunded)

65%

Motala (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IF Karlstad at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.36 · 97 matches

Motala away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IF Karlstad attack 1.97 + Motala defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.95

Motala attack 1.37 + IF Karlstad defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

IF Karlstad scores more

51%

level

22%

Motala scores more

27%

IF Karlstad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "IF Karlstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff