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Mosul vs Gharraf — Iraqi League 2025

Mosul
Mosul
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gharraf
Gharraf
D. Ibrahim 90'
M. Saad 28'
5/2/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mosul33%
×Draw27%
Gharraf40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosul
1.17
Gharraf
1.31

Gharraf creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mosul
1.12
Gharraf
1.16

allows per match

Mosul
1.47
Gharraf
1.21

finishing

Mosul+0.00on par
Gharraf+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosul ↓

Gharraf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mosul or draw
60%
Mosul or Gharraf
73%
Draw or Gharraf
67%

Winning margin

Mosul wins by 2+
14%
Gharraf wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mosul 1+ goals
69%
Mosul 2+ goals
33%
Mosul 3+ goals
11%
Gharraf 1+ goals
73%
Gharraf 2+ goals
38%
Gharraf 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mosul (draw refunded)
45%
Gharraf (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Gharraf away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosul attack 1.12 + Gharraf defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Gharraf attack 1.16 + Mosul defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mosul scores more
33%
level
27%
Gharraf scores more
40%

Gharraf at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gharraf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
M. Saad
66'
A. Khaled
90'
D. Ibrahim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mosul vs Gharraf

Mosul and Gharraf drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on May 2, 2026.

Goals: M. Saad (28'), D. Ibrahim (90').