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Gharraf vs Mosul — Iraqi League 2025

Gharraf
Gharraf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mosul
Mosul
A. Amutu 49'
9/15/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gharraf32%
×Draw29%
Mosul39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gharraf
1.03
Mosul
1.16

Mosul creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gharraf
0.95
Mosul
1.26

allows per match

Gharraf
1.05
Mosul
1.11

finishing

Gharraf+0.00on par
Mosul+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gharraf ↓

Mosul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Gharraf or draw
61%
Gharraf or Mosul
71%
Draw or Mosul
68%

Winning margin

Gharraf wins by 2+
12%
Mosul wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gharraf 1+ goals
64%
Gharraf 2+ goals
28%
Gharraf 3+ goals
9%
Mosul 1+ goals
69%
Mosul 2+ goals
32%
Mosul 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gharraf (draw refunded)
45%
Mosul (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gharraf at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Mosul away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gharraf attack 0.95 + Mosul defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Mosul attack 1.26 + Gharraf defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gharraf scores more
32%
level
29%
Mosul scores more
39%

Mosul at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mosul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
A. Amutu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gharraf vs Mosul

Gharraf beat Mosul 1-0 in Iraqi League on September 15, 2025.

Goals: A. Amutu (49').