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Móstoles vs Móstoles CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles
Móstoles
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Móstoles CF
Móstoles CF
2/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Móstoles50%
×Draw27%
Móstoles CF24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles
1.46
Móstoles CF
0.91

Móstoles creates 60% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 16 away

creates per match

Móstoles
1.67
Móstoles CF
0.81

allows per match

Móstoles
1.01
Móstoles CF
1.25

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par
Móstoles CF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Móstoles CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw
76%
Móstoles or Móstoles CF
73%
Draw or Móstoles CF
50%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+
25%
Móstoles CF wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals
77%
Móstoles 2+ goals
43%
Móstoles 3+ goals
18%
Móstoles CF 1+ goals
60%
Móstoles CF 2+ goals
23%
Móstoles CF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)
68%
Móstoles CF (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Móstoles CF away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Móstoles CF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Móstoles CF attack 0.81 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Móstoles scores more
50%
level
27%
Móstoles CF scores more
24%

Móstoles at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Móstoles 1–0 Móstoles CF

Móstoles beat Móstoles CF 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.