Móstoles CF 1–2 Móstoles: Result & Stats

Móstoles CF

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Móstoles

3/21/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Móstoles CF25%

×Draw28%

Móstoles47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Móstoles CFExpected goals in this matchMóstoles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.34

Móstoles CF

0.89

Móstoles

1.34

Móstoles creates 51% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 76 away

0.69

creates per match

1.30

1.38

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Móstoles CF

0.69

Móstoles

1.30

allows per match

Móstoles CF

1.38

Móstoles

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Móstoles CF+0.00on par

Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles CF ↓

Móstoles →

0–011%

0–114%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Móstoles CF or draw

53%

Móstoles CF or Móstoles

72%

Draw or Móstoles

75%

Winning margin

Móstoles CF wins by 2+

Móstoles wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Móstoles CF 1+ goals

59%

Móstoles CF 2+ goals

22%

Móstoles CF 3+ goals

Móstoles 1+ goals

74%

Móstoles 2+ goals

39%

Móstoles 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Móstoles CF (draw refunded)

35%

Móstoles (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Móstoles CF at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles CF attack 0.69 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Móstoles attack 1.30 + Móstoles CF defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Móstoles CF scores more

25%

level

28%

Móstoles scores more

47%

Móstoles at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff