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Móstoles vs Moratalaz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles
Móstoles
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moratalaz
Moratalaz
4/25/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Móstoles50%
×Draw25%
Moratalaz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles
1.60
Moratalaz
1.06

Móstoles creates 51% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 48 away

creates per match

Móstoles
1.67
Moratalaz
1.10

allows per match

Móstoles
1.01
Moratalaz
1.54

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par
Moratalaz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Moratalaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw
75%
Móstoles or Moratalaz
75%
Draw or Moratalaz
50%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+
26%
Moratalaz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals
80%
Móstoles 2+ goals
47%
Móstoles 3+ goals
22%
Moratalaz 1+ goals
65%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
29%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)
66%
Moratalaz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Moratalaz away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Moratalaz defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

Moratalaz attack 1.10 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Móstoles scores more
50%
level
25%
Moratalaz scores more
25%

Móstoles at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Móstoles 1–0 Moratalaz

Móstoles beat Moratalaz 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.