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Moratalaz vs Móstoles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Moratalaz
Moratalaz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Móstoles
Móstoles
4/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2nd Phase - 1Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Moratalaz34%
×Draw27%
Móstoles39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moratalaz
1.20
Móstoles
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 76 away

creates per match

Moratalaz
1.31
Móstoles
1.30

allows per match

Moratalaz
1.29
Móstoles
1.09

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par
Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Móstoles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw
61%
Moratalaz or Móstoles
73%
Draw or Móstoles
66%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+
14%
Móstoles wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals
70%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
34%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
12%
Móstoles 1+ goals
72%
Móstoles 2+ goals
37%
Móstoles 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)
47%
Móstoles (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Móstoles attack 1.30 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Moratalaz scores more
34%
level
27%
Móstoles scores more
39%

Móstoles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Moratalaz vs Móstoles

Moratalaz and Móstoles drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz in Madrid.