Móstoles 3–1 Madrid 2021 FP: Result & Stats

Móstoles

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Madrid 2021 FP

2/19/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Móstoles45%

×Draw26%

Madrid 2021 FP29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MóstolesExpected goals in this matchMadrid 2021 FP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.14

Móstoles

1.50

Madrid 2021 FP

1.14

Móstoles creates 32% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 35 away

1.67

creates per match

1.26

1.01

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Móstoles

1.67

Madrid 2021 FP

1.26

allows per match

Móstoles

1.01

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Madrid 2021 FP →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw

71%

Móstoles or Madrid 2021 FP

74%

Draw or Madrid 2021 FP

55%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+

23%

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals

78%

Móstoles 2+ goals

44%

Móstoles 3+ goals

19%

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

68%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

32%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)

61%

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Madrid 2021 FP away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.26 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Móstoles scores more

45%

level

26%

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

29%

Móstoles at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff