Madrid 2021 FP 2–1 Móstoles: Result & Stats

Madrid 2021 FP

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Móstoles

10/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 6Estadio Dehesa de la Villa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Madrid 2021 FP35%

×Draw27%

Móstoles39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Madrid 2021 FPExpected goals in this matchMóstoles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.32

Madrid 2021 FP

1.23

Móstoles

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 76 away

1.37

creates per match

1.30

1.34

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.37

Móstoles

1.30

allows per match

Madrid 2021 FP

1.34

Móstoles

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Madrid 2021 FP+0.00on par

Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madrid 2021 FP ↓

Móstoles →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Madrid 2021 FP or draw

61%

Madrid 2021 FP or Móstoles

73%

Draw or Móstoles

65%

Winning margin

Madrid 2021 FP wins by 2+

15%

Móstoles wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Madrid 2021 FP 1+ goals

71%

Madrid 2021 FP 2+ goals

35%

Madrid 2021 FP 3+ goals

13%

Móstoles 1+ goals

73%

Móstoles 2+ goals

38%

Móstoles 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Madrid 2021 FP (draw refunded)

47%

Móstoles (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Madrid 2021 FP at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Madrid 2021 FP attack 1.37 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Móstoles attack 1.30 + Madrid 2021 FP defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Madrid 2021 FP scores more

35%

level

27%

Móstoles scores more

39%

Móstoles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff