Móstoles vs Getafe II — League #879 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Móstoles45%
Getafe II25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Móstoles creates 48% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 16 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under69
- Over31
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Móstoles ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Móstoles at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches
Getafe II away — creates 1.19, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Móstoles attack 1.40 + Getafe II defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17
Getafe II attack 1.19 + Móstoles defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.79
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Móstoles at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
NavalcarneroGetafe II
Colonia Moscardó
SS Reyes
Las Palmas II
Real Madrid III
RSD Alcalá
Rayo Vallecano II
Orihuela
Quintanar del Rey
Socuéllamos
Conquense
Rayo Majadahonda
CD Coria
Intercity
Fuenlabrada
Tenerife II
Elche IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Móstoles host Getafe II on Sunday, 23 March 2025 at 11:00. The match is part of the League #879 2026/2027 season.
League #879: Móstoles 2–0 Getafe II
Móstoles beat Getafe II 2-0 in League #879 on March 23, 2025.
Goals: Fernando Guerrero (65'), Alex Castro (70').
The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.