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Móstoles vs Getafe II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles
Móstoles
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Getafe II
Getafe II
10/23/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 7Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Móstoles41%
×Draw27%
Getafe II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles
1.33
Getafe II
1.15

Móstoles creates 16% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 35 away

creates per match

Móstoles
1.67
Getafe II
1.29

allows per match

Móstoles
1.01
Getafe II
1.00

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw
68%
Móstoles or Getafe II
73%
Draw or Getafe II
59%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+
19%
Getafe II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals
74%
Móstoles 2+ goals
38%
Móstoles 3+ goals
15%
Getafe II 1+ goals
68%
Getafe II 2+ goals
32%
Getafe II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)
56%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Getafe II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Getafe II attack 1.29 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Móstoles scores more
41%
level
27%
Getafe II scores more
32%

Móstoles at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Móstoles 0–1 Getafe II

Getafe II beat Móstoles 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.