Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Móstoles vs Collado Villalba — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles
Móstoles
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
3/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Móstoles44%
×Draw27%
Collado Villalba28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles
1.35
Collado Villalba
1.02

Móstoles creates 32% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 49 away

creates per match

Móstoles
1.67
Collado Villalba
1.02

allows per match

Móstoles
1.01
Collado Villalba
1.04

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par
Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Collado Villalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw
72%
Móstoles or Collado Villalba
73%
Draw or Collado Villalba
56%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+
21%
Collado Villalba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals
74%
Móstoles 2+ goals
39%
Móstoles 3+ goals
15%
Collado Villalba 1+ goals
64%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
27%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)
61%
Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Collado Villalba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Collado Villalba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.35

Collado Villalba attack 1.02 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Móstoles scores more
44%
level
27%
Collado Villalba scores more
28%

Móstoles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Móstoles vs Collado Villalba

Móstoles and Collado Villalba drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.