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Collado Villalba vs Móstoles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Móstoles
Móstoles
11/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 10Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Collado Villalba32%
×Draw26%
Móstoles42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collado Villalba
1.22
Móstoles
1.43

Móstoles creates 17% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 76 away

creates per match

Collado Villalba
1.35
Móstoles
1.30

allows per match

Collado Villalba
1.55
Móstoles
1.09

finishing

Collado Villalba+0.00on par
Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collado Villalba ↓

Móstoles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Collado Villalba or draw
58%
Collado Villalba or Móstoles
74%
Draw or Móstoles
68%

Winning margin

Collado Villalba wins by 2+
13%
Móstoles wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Collado Villalba 1+ goals
70%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
34%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
12%
Móstoles 1+ goals
76%
Móstoles 2+ goals
42%
Móstoles 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
43%
Móstoles (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collado Villalba at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 49 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collado Villalba attack 1.35 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Móstoles attack 1.30 + Collado Villalba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Collado Villalba scores more
32%
level
26%
Móstoles scores more
42%

Móstoles at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Collado Villalba vs Móstoles

Móstoles beat Collado Villalba 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Collado Villalba in Collado Villalba.