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Móstoles vs Canillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles
Móstoles
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Canillas
Canillas
10/1/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 4Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Móstoles55%
×Draw23%
Canillas22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles
1.77
Canillas
1.02

Móstoles creates 74% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 49 away

creates per match

Móstoles
1.67
Canillas
1.04

allows per match

Móstoles
1.01
Canillas
1.86

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par
Canillas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Canillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw
78%
Móstoles or Canillas
77%
Draw or Canillas
45%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+
31%
Canillas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals
83%
Móstoles 2+ goals
53%
Móstoles 3+ goals
26%
Canillas 1+ goals
64%
Canillas 2+ goals
27%
Canillas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)
72%
Canillas (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Canillas away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.86 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Canillas defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Canillas attack 1.04 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Móstoles scores more
55%
level
23%
Canillas scores more
22%

Móstoles at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Móstoles 0–0 Canillas

Móstoles and Canillas drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.