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Canillas vs Móstoles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Canillas
Canillas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Móstoles
Móstoles
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 21Estadio Canillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Canillas29%
×Draw27%
Móstoles44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Canillas
1.06
Móstoles
1.38

Móstoles creates 30% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 76 away

creates per match

Canillas
1.04
Móstoles
1.30

allows per match

Canillas
1.45
Móstoles
1.09

finishing

Canillas+0.00on par
Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Canillas ↓

Móstoles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Canillas or draw
56%
Canillas or Móstoles
73%
Draw or Móstoles
71%

Winning margin

Canillas wins by 2+
11%
Móstoles wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Canillas 1+ goals
65%
Canillas 2+ goals
29%
Canillas 3+ goals
9%
Móstoles 1+ goals
75%
Móstoles 2+ goals
40%
Móstoles 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Canillas (draw refunded)
40%
Móstoles (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Canillas at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.45 · 49 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Canillas attack 1.04 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Móstoles attack 1.30 + Canillas defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Canillas scores more
29%
level
27%
Móstoles scores more
44%

Móstoles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Canillas 1–2 Móstoles

Móstoles beat Canillas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Canillas in Madrid.