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Móstoles vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Móstoles
Móstoles
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
11/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Estadio Municipal de El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Móstoles44%
×Draw26%
Alcobendas Sport30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móstoles
1.48
Alcobendas Sport
1.16

Móstoles creates 28% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 117 away

creates per match

Móstoles
1.67
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

Móstoles
1.01
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

Móstoles+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móstoles ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Móstoles or draw
70%
Móstoles or Alcobendas Sport
74%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
56%

Winning margin

Móstoles wins by 2+
22%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Móstoles 1+ goals
77%
Móstoles 2+ goals
43%
Móstoles 3+ goals
19%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
69%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
32%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Móstoles (draw refunded)
60%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móstoles at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móstoles attack 1.67 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Móstoles defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Móstoles scores more
44%
level
26%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
30%

Móstoles at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Móstoles vs Alcobendas Sport

Móstoles beat Alcobendas Sport 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Soto in Móstoles.