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Alcobendas Sport vs Móstoles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Móstoles
Móstoles
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 23Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Alcobendas Sport34%
×Draw27%
Móstoles39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcobendas Sport
1.20
Móstoles
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 115 home / 76 away

creates per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.30
Móstoles
1.30

allows per match

Alcobendas Sport
1.28
Móstoles
1.09

finishing

Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par
Móstoles+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcobendas Sport ↓

Móstoles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alcobendas Sport or draw
61%
Alcobendas Sport or Móstoles
73%
Draw or Móstoles
66%

Winning margin

Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
14%
Móstoles wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
70%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
34%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
12%
Móstoles 1+ goals
72%
Móstoles 2+ goals
37%
Móstoles 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
47%
Móstoles (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcobendas Sport at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.28 · 115 matches

Móstoles away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.30 + Móstoles defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Móstoles attack 1.30 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alcobendas Sport scores more
34%
level
27%
Móstoles scores more
39%

Móstoles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Móstoles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcobendas Sport vs Móstoles

Móstoles beat Alcobendas Sport 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Campo De Fútbol Paracuellos de Jarama in Paracuellos de Jarama.