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Mostaganem vs Olympique Medea — League #187 2026

Mostaganem
Mostaganem
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
2/17/2023League #187League #187 · West - 18Stade Commandant Ferradj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mostaganem67%
×Draw20%
Olympique Medea13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mostaganem
2.02
Olympique Medea
0.73

Mostaganem creates 177% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 34 away

creates per match

Mostaganem
2.33
Olympique Medea
0.79

allows per match

Mostaganem
0.67
Olympique Medea
1.71

finishing

Mostaganem+0.00on par
Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mostaganem ↓

Olympique Medea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mostaganem or draw
87%
Mostaganem or Olympique Medea
80%
Draw or Olympique Medea
33%

Winning margin

Mostaganem wins by 2+
42%
Olympique Medea wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mostaganem 1+ goals
87%
Mostaganem 2+ goals
60%
Mostaganem 3+ goals
33%
Olympique Medea 1+ goals
52%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
17%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mostaganem (draw refunded)
84%
Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mostaganem at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mostaganem attack 2.33 + Olympique Medea defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.02

Olympique Medea attack 0.79 + Mostaganem defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Mostaganem scores more
67%
level
20%
Olympique Medea scores more
13%

Mostaganem at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Mostaganem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #187: Mostaganem 3–1 Olympique Medea

Mostaganem beat Olympique Medea 3-1 in League #187 on February 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Commandant Ferradj in Mostaganem.