Mostaganem 0–1 Olympique Medea: Result & Stats

Mostaganem

FT

0 – 1

Olympique Medea

4/25/2014

League #187 · Round 26Stade Commandant Ferradj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mostaganem68%

×Draw19%

Olympique Medea13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MostaganemExpected goals in this matchOlympique Medea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.78

Mostaganem

2.11

Olympique Medea

0.78

Mostaganem creates 171% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 27 away

2.33

creates per match

0.89

0.67

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Mostaganem

2.33

Olympique Medea

0.89

allows per match

Mostaganem

0.67

Olympique Medea

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mostaganem+0.00on par

Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mostaganem ↓

Olympique Medea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mostaganem or draw

87%

Mostaganem or Olympique Medea

81%

Draw or Olympique Medea

32%

Winning margin

Mostaganem wins by 2+

43%

Olympique Medea wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Mostaganem 1+ goals

88%

Mostaganem 2+ goals

62%

Mostaganem 3+ goals

35%

Olympique Medea 1+ goals

54%

Olympique Medea 2+ goals

18%

Olympique Medea 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mostaganem (draw refunded)

84%

Olympique Medea (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mostaganem at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mostaganem attack 2.33 + Olympique Medea defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.11

Olympique Medea attack 0.89 + Mostaganem defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Mostaganem scores more

68%

level

19%

Olympique Medea scores more

13%

Mostaganem at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mostaganem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff