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Mosta vs Valletta FC — League #393 2026

Mosta
Mosta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Valletta FC
Valletta FC
2/17/2024League #393League #393 · Round 17Tony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mosta20%
×Draw24%
Valletta FC56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosta
0.92
Valletta FC
1.73

Valletta FC creates 88% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mosta
1.17
Valletta FC
1.78

allows per match

Mosta
1.67
Valletta FC
0.67

finishing

Mosta+0.00on par
Valletta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosta ↓

Valletta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mosta or draw
44%
Mosta or Valletta FC
76%
Draw or Valletta FC
80%

Winning margin

Mosta wins by 2+
7%
Valletta FC wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Mosta 1+ goals
60%
Mosta 2+ goals
23%
Mosta 3+ goals
7%
Valletta FC 1+ goals
82%
Valletta FC 2+ goals
52%
Valletta FC 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mosta (draw refunded)
26%
Valletta FC (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosta at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Valletta FC away — creates 1.78, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosta attack 1.17 + Valletta FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

Valletta FC attack 1.78 + Mosta defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mosta scores more
20%
level
24%
Valletta FC scores more
56%

Valletta FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Valletta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #393: Mosta 1–0 Valletta FC

Mosta beat Valletta FC 1-0 in League #393 on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Tony Bezzina Stadium in Paola.