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Mosta vs Valletta FC — FA Trophy 2020

Mosta
Mostaadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Valletta FC
Valletta FC
2/6/2024FA TrophyFA Trophy · Round of 16Tony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mosta60%
×Draw20%
Valletta FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosta
2.27
Valletta FC
1.25

Mosta creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mosta
4.20
Valletta FC
2.11

allows per match

Mosta
0.40
Valletta FC
0.33

finishing

Mosta+0.00on par
Valletta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosta ↓

Valletta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mosta or draw
80%
Mosta or Valletta FC
80%
Draw or Valletta FC
40%

Winning margin

Mosta wins by 2+
38%
Valletta FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mosta 1+ goals
90%
Mosta 2+ goals
66%
Mosta 3+ goals
39%
Valletta FC 1+ goals
71%
Valletta FC 2+ goals
36%
Valletta FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mosta (draw refunded)
75%
Valletta FC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosta at home — creates 4.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Valletta FC away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosta attack 4.20 + Valletta FC defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

Valletta FC attack 2.11 + Mosta defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mosta scores more
60%
level
20%
Valletta FC scores more
20%

Mosta at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mosta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Trophy: Mosta 2–1 Valletta FC

Mosta beat Valletta FC 2-1 in FA Trophy on February 6, 2024.

The match was played at Tony Bezzina Stadium in Paola.