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Moss vs ODD Ballklubb — 1. Division 2026

Moss
Moss
Preview
17:00
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
8/10/20261. Division1. Division · Round 17
Big match
48%
Moss
model favours
48%23%29%

Moss score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Moss48%
×Draw23%
ODD Ballklubb29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moss
1.76
ODD Ballklubb
1.31

Moss creates 34% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 21 away

creates per match

Moss
1.81
ODD Ballklubb
1.33

allows per match

Moss
1.30
ODD Ballklubb
1.71

finishing

Moss+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moss ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Moss or draw
71%
Moss or ODD Ballklubb
77%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
52%

Winning margin

Moss wins by 2+
26%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Moss 1+ goals
83%
Moss 2+ goals
52%
Moss 3+ goals
26%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
73%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
38%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Moss (draw refunded)
63%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moss at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moss attack 1.81 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.76

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.33 + Moss defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Moss scores more
48%
level
23%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
29%

Moss at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Moss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (85% and 77% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 92% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches
  • 85% of Moss’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 77% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • ODD Ballklubb score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in 77% of Moss’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Moss
LLLWD
Ballklubb
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Moss vs ODD Ballklubb — Match Preview

Moss face ODD Ballklubb on August 10, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.