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Moss vs ODD Ballklubb — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Moss
Moss
FT
3 – 2
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
Unknown 128', 122'
M. Andresen 23'
M. Ingebrigtsen 19', 16'
2/15/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Moss48%
×Draw21%
ODD Ballklubb31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moss
2.12
ODD Ballklubb
1.66

Moss creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Moss
2.13
ODD Ballklubb
1.44

allows per match

Moss
1.88
ODD Ballklubb
2.11

finishing

Moss+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 73Under: 2773%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 71No: 2971%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moss ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Moss or draw
69%
Moss or ODD Ballklubb
79%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
52%

Winning margin

Moss wins by 2+
28%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Moss 1+ goals
88%
Moss 2+ goals
62%
Moss 3+ goals
35%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
81%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
49%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Moss (draw refunded)
61%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moss at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moss attack 2.13 + ODD Ballklubb defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.12

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.44 + Moss defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Moss scores more
48%
level
21%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
31%

Moss at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Moss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
M. Ingebrigtsen
19'
M. Ingebrigtsen
23'
M. Andresen
122'
128'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Moss 3–2 ODD Ballklubb

Moss beat ODD Ballklubb 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on February 15, 2024.

Goals: M. Ingebrigtsen (16', 19'), M. Andresen (23'), ? (122', 128').

The match was played at TBC in TBC.