Moss 0–2 Kvik Halden: Result & Stats

Moss

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kvik Halden

F. Næss 60', 54'

8/21/2021

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Melløs Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Moss44%

×Draw22%

Kvik Halden34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MossExpected goals in this matchKvik Halden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.69

Moss

1.93

Kvik Halden

1.69

Moss creates 14% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 63 away

1.75

creates per match

1.75

1.64

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Moss

1.75

Kvik Halden

1.75

allows per match

Moss

1.64

Kvik Halden

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moss+0.00on par

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moss ↓

Kvik Halden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Moss or draw

66%

Moss or Kvik Halden

78%

Draw or Kvik Halden

56%

Winning margin

Moss wins by 2+

24%

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Moss 1+ goals

85%

Moss 2+ goals

57%

Moss 3+ goals

30%

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

82%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

50%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Moss (draw refunded)

56%

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moss at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.64 · 44 matches

Kvik Halden away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.11 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moss attack 1.75 + Kvik Halden defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.93

Kvik Halden attack 1.75 + Moss defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Moss scores more

44%

level

22%

Kvik Halden scores more

34%

Moss at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Moss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Makiadi← M. Aamodt Eriksen

16'

T. Klaussen

25'

M. Engebretsen

38'

J. Lund

46'

J. Bouchleh← E. Lorås Vestby

54'

F. Næss

60'

F. Næss

63'

J. Nilsen← T. Klaussen

63'

U. Pedersen← B. Kadri

63'

W. Phudithip← A. Kidane

70'

S. Pedersen← W. Idrissi

72'

Å. Midtskogen← J. Lund

72'

K. Krans← F. Næss

81'

D. Hasanagic← E. Adukonis

88'

A. Bjørnvåg← W. Hagren

Moss

Kvik

1

88

17

16

2

▼

Lund

24

▼

Eriksen

23

Engebrets

10

⚽2

▼

Næss

9

Næsheim

14

▼

Vestby

20

▼

21

5

18

14

▼

Kidane

4

Andersen

20

▼

Hagren

10

▼

Klaussen

8

Tesfai

15

▼

Kadri

7

▼

Idrissi

11

Jakobsen

Manager: S. Constable

63'▲J. Nilsen←▼T. Klaussen

63'▲U. Pedersen←▼B. Kadri

63'▲W. Phudithip←▼A. Kidane

70'▲S. Pedersen←▼W. Idrissi

88'▲A. Bjørnvåg←▼W. Hagren

Moss substitutes

6Nilsen22Pedersen17Phudithip19Pedersen2Bjørnvåg9Skårn26Hjerpseth1Lagesen23Njie

Manager: T. Thodesen

14'▲A. Makiadi←▼M. Aamodt Eriksen

46'▲J. Bouchleh←▼E. Lorås Vestby

72'▲Å. Midtskogen←▼J. Lund

72'▲K. Krans←▼F. Næss

81'▲D. Hasanagic←▼E. Adukonis

Kvik Halden substitutes

33Makiadi13Bouchleh6Midtskogen32Krans25Hasanagic5Čomor12Thomassen45Thulin

Match Recap: Moss vs Kvik Halden

Kvik Halden beat Moss 2-0 in 2. Division - Group 1 on August 21, 2021.

Goals: F. Næss (54', 60').

The match was played at Melløs Stadion in Moss.

Moss vs Kvik Halden — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Moss vs Kvik Halden