Kvik Halden 1–0 Moss: Result & Stats

Kvik Halden

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Moss

Ø. Næsheim 36'

10/30/2021

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Halden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Kvik Halden47%

×Draw24%

Moss30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kvik HaldenExpected goals in this matchMoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.31

Kvik Halden

1.70

Moss

1.31

Kvik Halden creates 30% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 43 away

1.77

creates per match

1.42

1.21

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Kvik Halden

1.77

Moss

1.42

allows per match

Kvik Halden

1.21

Moss

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Moss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kvik Halden ↓

Moss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kvik Halden or draw

70%

Kvik Halden or Moss

76%

Draw or Moss

53%

Winning margin

Kvik Halden wins by 2+

25%

Moss wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kvik Halden 1+ goals

82%

Kvik Halden 2+ goals

51%

Kvik Halden 3+ goals

24%

Moss 1+ goals

73%

Moss 2+ goals

38%

Moss 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kvik Halden (draw refunded)

61%

Moss (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kvik Halden at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.21 · 62 matches

Moss away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kvik Halden attack 1.77 + Moss defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.70

Moss attack 1.42 + Kvik Halden defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kvik Halden scores more

47%

level

24%

Moss scores more

30%

Kvik Halden at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Engebretsen

36'

Ø. Næsheim

51'

W. Idrissi

56'

D. Mehmeti

62'

F. Westgaard

66'

K. Krans← Ø. Næsheim

68'

L. Getz← A. Potur

68'

U. Pedersen← E. Tesfai

68'

M. Fagernes← T. Jakobsen

82'

M. Fagernes

82'

M. Manirakiza← O. Thomassen

82'

L. Fritzen← E. Adukonis

85'

W. Phudithip← W. Idrissi

89'

O. Simsek

90'

M. Njie

Kvik

Moss

1

5

4

20

16

▼

25

23

6

8

▼

Tesfai

7

▼

Idrissi

11

▼

1

88

17

16

2

24

23

25

12

▼

Thomassen

9

⚽

▼

Næsheim

20

▼

Adukonis

Manager: T. Thodesen

66'▲K. Krans←▼Ø. Næsheim

82'▲M. Manirakiza←▼O. Thomassen

82'▲L. Fritzen←▼E. Adukonis

Kvik Halden substitutes

32Krans18Manirakiza15Fritzen5Čomor7Kaasa28Thorvaldsen22Bønøgård

Manager: S. Constable

68'▲L. Getz←▼A. Potur

68'▲U. Pedersen←▼E. Tesfai

68'▲M. Fagernes←▼T. Jakobsen

85'▲W. Phudithip←▼W. Idrissi

Moss substitutes

18Getz22Pedersen24Fagernes17Phudithip3Guttulsrød10Klaussen15Kadri21Mederos