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Mosconia vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Mosconia
Mosconia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
9/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Mosconia49%
×Draw26%
Avilés Stadium25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mosconia
1.46
Avilés Stadium
0.96

Mosconia creates 52% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 80 away

creates per match

Mosconia
1.17
Avilés Stadium
0.85

allows per match

Mosconia
1.07
Avilés Stadium
1.75

finishing

Mosconia+0.00on par
Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mosconia ↓

Avilés Stadium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mosconia or draw
75%
Mosconia or Avilés Stadium
74%
Draw or Avilés Stadium
51%

Winning margin

Mosconia wins by 2+
24%
Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mosconia 1+ goals
77%
Mosconia 2+ goals
43%
Mosconia 3+ goals
18%
Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
62%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
25%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mosconia (draw refunded)
66%
Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mosconia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mosconia attack 1.17 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Mosconia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mosconia scores more
49%
level
26%
Avilés Stadium scores more
25%

Mosconia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mosconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Mosconia 3–1 Avilés Stadium

Mosconia beat Avilés Stadium 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo in Grado, Asturias.