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Avilés Stadium vs Mosconia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mosconia
Mosconia
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Campo Muro de Zaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Avilés Stadium33%
×Draw30%
Mosconia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avilés Stadium
1.02
Mosconia
1.12

Mosconia creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 83 away

creates per match

Avilés Stadium
0.74
Mosconia
1.04

allows per match

Avilés Stadium
1.20
Mosconia
1.30

finishing

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par
Mosconia+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avilés Stadium ↓

Mosconia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Avilés Stadium or draw
62%
Avilés Stadium or Mosconia
70%
Draw or Mosconia
67%

Winning margin

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
12%
Mosconia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
64%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
27%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
8%
Mosconia 1+ goals
67%
Mosconia 2+ goals
31%
Mosconia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
46%
Mosconia (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avilés Stadium at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Mosconia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avilés Stadium attack 0.74 + Mosconia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

Mosconia attack 1.04 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Avilés Stadium scores more
33%
level
30%
Mosconia scores more
38%

Mosconia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mosconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avilés Stadium 0 – 0 Mosconia

Avilés Stadium and Mosconia drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Muro de Zaro in Avilés.