Morton 4–1 Queen of the South: Result & Stats

Morton

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Queen of the South

11/26/2022

FA Cup · 3rd RoundCappielow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Morton57%

×Draw23%

Queen of the South20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MortonExpected goals in this matchQueen of the South

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.00

Morton

1.83

Queen of the South

1.00

Morton creates 83% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.17

creates per match

1.33

0.67

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Morton

2.17

Queen of the South

1.33

allows per match

Morton

0.67

Queen of the South

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morton+0.00on par

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morton ↓

Queen of the South →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Morton or draw

80%

Morton or Queen of the South

77%

Draw or Queen of the South

43%

Winning margin

Morton wins by 2+

32%

Queen of the South wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Morton 1+ goals

84%

Morton 2+ goals

54%

Morton 3+ goals

28%

Queen of the South 1+ goals

63%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

26%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Morton (draw refunded)

74%

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morton at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morton attack 2.17 + Queen of the South defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Queen of the South attack 1.33 + Morton defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Morton scores more

57%

level

23%

Queen of the South scores more

20%

Morton at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Morton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff