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Morton vs Queen of the South — League Cup 2018

Morton
Morton
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Queen of the South
Queen of the South
10/6/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1Cappielow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Morton48%
×Draw23%
Queen of the South29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morton
1.75
Queen of the South
1.31

Morton creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

creates per match

Morton
2.31
Queen of the South
1.93

allows per match

Morton
0.69
Queen of the South
1.20

finishing

Morton+0.00on par
Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morton ↓

Queen of the South →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Morton or draw
71%
Morton or Queen of the South
77%
Draw or Queen of the South
52%

Winning margin

Morton wins by 2+
26%
Queen of the South wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Morton 1+ goals
83%
Morton 2+ goals
52%
Morton 3+ goals
25%
Queen of the South 1+ goals
73%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
38%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Morton (draw refunded)
62%
Queen of the South (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morton at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morton attack 2.31 + Queen of the South defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.75

Queen of the South attack 1.93 + Morton defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Morton scores more
48%
level
23%
Queen of the South scores more
29%

Morton at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Morton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Morton 2–2 Queen of the South

Morton and Queen of the South drew 2-2 in League Cup on October 6, 2020.

The match was played at Cappielow Park in Greenock.