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Morton vs Brechin — League #180 2026

Morton
Morton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brechin
Brechin
3/24/2018League #180League #180 · Round 31Cappielow Park (Greenock)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Morton57%
×Draw22%
Brechin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morton
1.94
Brechin
1.07

Morton creates 81% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Morton
0.88
Brechin
0.40

allows per match

Morton
1.75
Brechin
3.00

finishing

Morton+0.00on par
Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morton ↓

Brechin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Morton or draw
79%
Morton or Brechin
78%
Draw or Brechin
43%

Winning margin

Morton wins by 2+
34%
Brechin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Morton 1+ goals
86%
Morton 2+ goals
58%
Morton 3+ goals
30%
Brechin 1+ goals
66%
Brechin 2+ goals
29%
Brechin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Morton (draw refunded)
74%
Brechin (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morton at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Brechin away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morton attack 0.88 + Brechin defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Brechin attack 0.40 + Morton defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Morton scores more
57%
level
22%
Brechin scores more
21%

Morton at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Morton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morton vs Brechin

Morton beat Brechin 2-0 in League #180 on March 24, 2018.

The match was played at Cappielow Park (Greenock).