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Brechin vs Morton — League #180 2026

Brechin
Brechin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Morton
Morton
10/14/2017League #180League #180 · Round 9Glebe Park (Brechin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brechin39%
×Draw27%
Morton34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
1.27
Morton
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Brechin
0.40
Morton
1.14

allows per match

Brechin
1.20
Morton
2.14

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Morton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Morton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
66%
Brechin or Morton
73%
Draw or Morton
61%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
17%
Morton wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
72%
Brechin 2+ goals
36%
Brechin 3+ goals
14%
Morton 1+ goals
69%
Morton 2+ goals
33%
Morton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
53%
Morton (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Morton away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.40 + Morton defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Morton attack 1.14 + Brechin defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Brechin scores more
39%
level
27%
Morton scores more
34%

Brechin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brechin vs Morton

Morton beat Brechin 1-0 in League #180 on October 14, 2017.

The match was played at Glebe Park (Brechin).