Morocco 2–0 Comoros: Result & Stats

Morocco

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Comoros

Z. Aboukhlal 89'

S. Amallah 16'

1/14/2022

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Morocco64%

×Draw25%

Comoros11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoroccoExpected goals in this matchComoros

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.46

Morocco

1.53

Comoros

0.46

Morocco creates 233% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

0.56

0.36

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Morocco

1.50

Comoros

0.56

allows per match

Morocco

0.36

Comoros

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Morocco+0.00on par

Comoros+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco ↓

Comoros →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Morocco or draw

89%

Morocco or Comoros

75%

Draw or Comoros

36%

Winning margin

Morocco wins by 2+

35%

Comoros wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Morocco 1+ goals

78%

Morocco 2+ goals

45%

Morocco 3+ goals

20%

Comoros 1+ goals

37%

Comoros 2+ goals

8%

Comoros 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Morocco (draw refunded)

85%

Comoros (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morocco at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Comoros away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morocco attack 1.50 + Comoros defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Comoros attack 0.56 + Morocco defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Morocco scores more

64%

level

25%

Comoros scores more

11%

Morocco at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Morocco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

S. Amallah

Morocco · M

8.3

Match Events

16'

16'

18'

41'

42'

59'

Y. Bourhane← R. Abdullah

65'

Y. En-Nesyri← A. El Kaabi

65'

Z. Aboukhlal← I. Louza

65'

F. Fajr← T. Tissoudali

65'

Y. Zahary← B. Youssouf

76'

M. El-Haddadi← S. Boufal

89'

A. Mogni← S. Bakari

89'

I. Youssouf← F. Bachirou

89'

D. Moussa← M. Youssouf

89'

Z. Aboukhlal↳ S. Amallah

90+1'

Zakaria AboukhlalGoal confirmed

90'

A. Ounahi← S. Amallah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MoroccoComoros

Overview

59%Possession41%

19Total Shots7

9Corners1

17Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots7

9On Target0

6Off Target3

4Blocked4

14Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

471Total Passes330

397Accurate Passes254

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

17Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0

Match Recap: Morocco vs Comoros

Morocco beat Comoros 2-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 14, 2022.

Goals: S. Amallah (16'), Z. Aboukhlal (89').

Morocco controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo in Yaoundé.

Morocco vs Comoros — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Morocco vs Comoros