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Morocco vs Comoros — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Morocco
Morocco
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Comoros
Comoros
F. Fajr 90' (pen)
10/13/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 4Stade Mohamed V (Casablanca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Morocco64%
×Draw25%
Comoros11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morocco
1.53
Comoros
0.46

Morocco creates 233% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Morocco
1.50
Comoros
0.56

allows per match

Morocco
0.36
Comoros
1.56

finishing

Morocco+0.00on par
Comoros+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morocco ↓

Comoros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Morocco or draw
89%
Morocco or Comoros
75%
Draw or Comoros
36%

Winning margin

Morocco wins by 2+
35%
Comoros wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Morocco 1+ goals
78%
Morocco 2+ goals
45%
Morocco 3+ goals
20%
Comoros 1+ goals
37%
Comoros 2+ goals
8%
Comoros 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Morocco (draw refunded)
85%
Comoros (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morocco at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Comoros away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morocco attack 1.50 + Comoros defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Comoros attack 0.56 + Morocco defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Morocco scores more
64%
level
25%
Comoros scores more
11%

Morocco at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Morocco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
F. FajrPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Morocco 1–0 Comoros

Morocco beat Comoros 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on October 13, 2018.

Goals: F. Fajr (90' pen).

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V (Casablanca).