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Móri SE vs Komárom — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Komárom
Komárom
2/19/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 22Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE24%
×Draw23%
Komárom53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
1.19
Komárom
1.85

Komárom creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 67 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
Komárom
1.28

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
Komárom
1.69

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
Komárom+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Komárom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
47%
Móri SE or Komárom
77%
Draw or Komárom
76%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
10%
Komárom wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
70%
Móri SE 2+ goals
33%
Móri SE 3+ goals
12%
Komárom 1+ goals
84%
Komárom 2+ goals
55%
Komárom 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
32%
Komárom (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Komárom away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Komárom defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.19

Komárom attack 1.28 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Móri SE scores more
24%
level
23%
Komárom scores more
53%

Komárom at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Komárom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 1–2 Komárom

Komárom beat Móri SE 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.