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Komárom vs Móri SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Komárom
Komárom
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Móri SE
Móri SE
8/14/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 3MOLAJ Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Komárom55%
×Draw21%
Móri SE24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Komárom
2.04
Móri SE
1.29

Komárom creates 58% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 19 away

creates per match

Komárom
1.62
Móri SE
1.16

allows per match

Komárom
1.42
Móri SE
2.47

finishing

Komárom+0.00on par
Móri SE+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Komárom ↓

Móri SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Komárom or draw
76%
Komárom or Móri SE
79%
Draw or Móri SE
45%

Winning margin

Komárom wins by 2+
32%
Móri SE wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Komárom 1+ goals
87%
Komárom 2+ goals
60%
Komárom 3+ goals
33%
Móri SE 1+ goals
72%
Móri SE 2+ goals
37%
Móri SE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Komárom (draw refunded)
69%
Móri SE (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Komárom at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 66 matches

Móri SE away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Komárom attack 1.62 + Móri SE defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.04

Móri SE attack 1.16 + Komárom defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Komárom scores more
55%
level
21%
Móri SE scores more
24%

Komárom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Komárom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Komárom 3–1 Móri SE

Komárom beat Móri SE 3-1 in NB III - Southwest on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at MOLAJ Sporttelep in Komárom.