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Móri SE vs Gyori ETO II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gyori ETO II
Gyori ETO II
5/21/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 38Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE21%
×Draw23%
Gyori ETO II57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
1.03
Gyori ETO II
1.87

Gyori ETO II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
Gyori ETO II
1.32

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
Gyori ETO II
1.39

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
Gyori ETO II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Gyori ETO II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
43%
Móri SE or Gyori ETO II
77%
Draw or Gyori ETO II
79%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
7%
Gyori ETO II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
64%
Móri SE 2+ goals
28%
Móri SE 3+ goals
9%
Gyori ETO II 1+ goals
85%
Gyori ETO II 2+ goals
56%
Gyori ETO II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
27%
Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Gyori ETO II away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.03

Gyori ETO II attack 1.32 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Móri SE scores more
21%
level
23%
Gyori ETO II scores more
57%

Gyori ETO II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gyori ETO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 1–0 Gyori ETO II

Móri SE beat Gyori ETO II 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.