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Gyori ETO II vs Móri SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Gyori ETO II
Gyori ETO II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Móri SE
Móri SE
11/27/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 19ETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Gyori ETO II60%
×Draw20%
Móri SE21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyori ETO II
2.28
Móri SE
1.27

Gyori ETO II creates 80% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Gyori ETO II
2.08
Móri SE
1.16

allows per match

Gyori ETO II
1.37
Móri SE
2.47

finishing

Gyori ETO II+0.00on par
Móri SE+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyori ETO II ↓

Móri SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Gyori ETO II or draw
79%
Gyori ETO II or Móri SE
80%
Draw or Móri SE
40%

Winning margin

Gyori ETO II wins by 2+
38%
Móri SE wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gyori ETO II 1+ goals
90%
Gyori ETO II 2+ goals
66%
Gyori ETO II 3+ goals
39%
Móri SE 1+ goals
72%
Móri SE 2+ goals
36%
Móri SE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gyori ETO II (draw refunded)
74%
Móri SE (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyori ETO II at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

Móri SE away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyori ETO II attack 2.08 + Móri SE defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.28

Móri SE attack 1.16 + Gyori ETO II defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gyori ETO II scores more
60%
level
20%
Móri SE scores more
21%

Gyori ETO II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gyori ETO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Gyori ETO II 2–1 Móri SE

Gyori ETO II beat Móri SE 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at ETO Park in Győr.