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Móri SE vs Budaörs — NB III - Southwest 2019

Móri SE
Móri SE
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Budaörs
Budaörs
9/11/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 8Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Móri SE18%
×Draw23%
Budaörs59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Móri SE
0.90
Budaörs
1.81

Budaörs creates 101% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Móri SE
0.68
Budaörs
1.21

allows per match

Móri SE
2.42
Budaörs
1.11

finishing

Móri SE+0.00on par
Budaörs+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Móri SE ↓

Budaörs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Móri SE or draw
41%
Móri SE or Budaörs
77%
Draw or Budaörs
82%

Winning margin

Móri SE wins by 2+
6%
Budaörs wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Móri SE 1+ goals
59%
Móri SE 2+ goals
23%
Móri SE 3+ goals
6%
Budaörs 1+ goals
84%
Budaörs 2+ goals
54%
Budaörs 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Móri SE (draw refunded)
24%
Budaörs (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Móri SE at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.42 · 19 matches

Budaörs away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Móri SE attack 0.68 + Budaörs defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.90

Budaörs attack 1.21 + Móri SE defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Móri SE scores more
18%
level
23%
Budaörs scores more
59%

Budaörs at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Budaörs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Móri SE 2–1 Budaörs

Móri SE beat Budaörs 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Táncsics Mihály utcai Pálya in Mór.