Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Budaörs vs Móri SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Budaörs
Budaörs
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Móri SE
Móri SE
A. Bozai 5'
3/26/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 27Árok utcai pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Budaörs59%
×Draw21%
Móri SE20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Budaörs
2.10
Móri SE
1.16

Budaörs creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Budaörs
1.74
Móri SE
1.16

allows per match

Budaörs
1.16
Móri SE
2.47

finishing

Budaörs+0.00on par
Móri SE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budaörs ↓

Móri SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Budaörs or draw
80%
Budaörs or Móri SE
79%
Draw or Móri SE
41%

Winning margin

Budaörs wins by 2+
36%
Móri SE wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Budaörs 1+ goals
88%
Budaörs 2+ goals
62%
Budaörs 3+ goals
35%
Móri SE 1+ goals
69%
Móri SE 2+ goals
32%
Móri SE 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Budaörs (draw refunded)
74%
Móri SE (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budaörs at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Móri SE away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budaörs attack 1.74 + Móri SE defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.10

Móri SE attack 1.16 + Budaörs defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Budaörs scores more
59%
level
21%
Móri SE scores more
20%

Budaörs at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Budaörs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
A. Bozai
50'
G. Toth

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Budaörs vs Móri SE

Móri SE beat Budaörs 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 26, 2023.

Goals: A. Bozai (5').

The match was played at Árok utcai pálya in Budaörs.