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Mori Santo Stefano vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Luparense
Luparense
A. de Cerchio 77'
F. Bangal 8'
10/8/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 5Stadio Quercia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mori Santo Stefano23%
×Draw24%
Luparense54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mori Santo Stefano
1.03
Luparense
1.73

Luparense creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Mori Santo Stefano
0.76
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Mori Santo Stefano
2.24
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mori Santo Stefano ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mori Santo Stefano or draw
46%
Mori Santo Stefano or Luparense
76%
Draw or Luparense
77%

Winning margin

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
8%
Luparense wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
64%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
28%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
9%
Luparense 1+ goals
82%
Luparense 2+ goals
52%
Luparense 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
30%
Luparense (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mori Santo Stefano at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.76 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.03

Luparense attack 1.21 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mori Santo Stefano scores more
23%
level
24%
Luparense scores more
54%

Luparense at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
F. Bangal
77'
A. de Cerchio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Mori Santo Stefano 0–2 Luparense

Luparense beat Mori Santo Stefano 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 8, 2023.

Goals: F. Bangal (8'), A. de Cerchio (77').

The match was played at Stadio Quercia in Rovereto.