Luparense vs Mori Santo Stefano — Serie D - Girone C 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 17+ matches
Luparense64%
Mori Santo Stefano14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Luparense creates 151% more chances
Season form · 100 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Luparense ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches
Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Luparense attack 1.58 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.91
Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.76
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 64%?"
Luparense at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 64% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Campodarsego
Legnago Salus
Ambrosiana
Clodiense
Mestre
Adriese
Union Feltre
Cartigliano
Cjarlins MuzaneLuparense
Caldiero Terme
Este
Chions
Belluno
Delta Porto Tolle
Montebelluna
Vigasio
Tamai
San Luigi
VillafrancaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Luparense host Mori Santo Stefano on Sunday, 4 February 2024 at 13:30. The match is part of the Serie D - Girone C 2019/2020 season.
Serie D - Girone C: Luparense 1–0 Mori Santo Stefano
Luparense beat Mori Santo Stefano 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 4, 2024.
Goals: D. Buongiorno (10' pen).
The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée in San Martino di Lupari.