Mori Santo Stefano 0–3 Este: Result & Stats

Mori Santo Stefano

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Este

11/26/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 13Stadio Quercia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mori Santo Stefano23%

×Draw24%

Este53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mori Santo StefanoExpected goals in this matchEste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.67

Mori Santo Stefano

1.00

Este

1.67

Este creates 67% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

0.76

creates per match

1.09

2.24

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Mori Santo Stefano

0.76

Este

1.09

allows per match

Mori Santo Stefano

2.24

Este

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Este+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mori Santo Stefano ↓

Este →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mori Santo Stefano or draw

47%

Mori Santo Stefano or Este

76%

Draw or Este

77%

Winning margin

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+

8%

Este wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals

63%

Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals

26%

Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals

8%

Este 1+ goals

81%

Este 2+ goals

50%

Este 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)

30%

Este (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mori Santo Stefano at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Este away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.76 + Este defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.00

Este attack 1.09 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mori Santo Stefano scores more

23%

level

24%

Este scores more

53%

Este at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff