Este 3–0 Mori Santo Stefano: Result & Stats

Este

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mori Santo Stefano

4/7/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 30Nuovo Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Este62%

×Draw23%

Mori Santo Stefano16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsteExpected goals in this matchMori Santo Stefano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

0.78

Este

1.80

Mori Santo Stefano

0.78

Este creates 131% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 17 away

1.36

creates per match

0.53

1.03

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Este

1.36

Mori Santo Stefano

0.53

allows per match

Este

1.03

Mori Santo Stefano

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Este+0.00on par

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Mori Santo Stefano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Este or draw

84%

Este or Mori Santo Stefano

77%

Draw or Mori Santo Stefano

38%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+

36%

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals

83%

Este 2+ goals

54%

Este 3+ goals

27%

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals

54%

Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals

18%

Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)

80%

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.80

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Este scores more

62%

level

23%

Mori Santo Stefano scores more

16%

Este at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff