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Mori Santo Stefano vs Clodiense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Clodiense
Clodiense
N. Cescatti 53'
A. En Naimi 41'
I. Sinani 70', 68'
M. Buratto 29'
11/12/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 11Stadio Quercia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mori Santo Stefano17%
×Draw22%
Clodiense61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mori Santo Stefano
0.85
Clodiense
1.84

Clodiense creates 116% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Mori Santo Stefano
0.76
Clodiense
1.44

allows per match

Mori Santo Stefano
2.24
Clodiense
0.95

finishing

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par
Clodiense+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mori Santo Stefano ↓

Clodiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mori Santo Stefano or draw
39%
Mori Santo Stefano or Clodiense
78%
Draw or Clodiense
83%

Winning margin

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
5%
Clodiense wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
57%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
21%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
5%
Clodiense 1+ goals
84%
Clodiense 2+ goals
55%
Clodiense 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
22%
Clodiense (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mori Santo Stefano at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Clodiense away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.76 + Clodiense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.85

Clodiense attack 1.44 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mori Santo Stefano scores more
17%
level
22%
Clodiense scores more
61%

Clodiense at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
M. Buratto
41'
A. En Naimi
53'
N. Cescatti
68'
I. Sinani
70'
I. Sinani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Mori Santo Stefano 2–3 Clodiense

Clodiense beat Mori Santo Stefano 3-2 in Serie D - Girone C on November 12, 2023.

Goals: M. Buratto (29'), A. En Naimi (41'), N. Cescatti (53'), I. Sinani (68', 70').

The match was played at Stadio Quercia in Rovereto.