Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Clodiense vs Mori Santo Stefano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Clodiense
Clodiense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
M. Mauri 31'
I. Sinani 2'
3/24/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 28Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Clodiense68%
×Draw21%
Mori Santo Stefano11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clodiense
1.87
Mori Santo Stefano
0.59

Clodiense creates 217% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

creates per match

Clodiense
1.49
Mori Santo Stefano
0.53

allows per match

Clodiense
0.65
Mori Santo Stefano
2.24

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par
Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Mori Santo Stefano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw
89%
Clodiense or Mori Santo Stefano
79%
Draw or Mori Santo Stefano
32%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+
41%
Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals
85%
Clodiense 2+ goals
56%
Clodiense 3+ goals
29%
Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
45%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
12%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)
86%
Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.87

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Clodiense scores more
68%
level
21%
Mori Santo Stefano scores more
11%

Clodiense at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
I. Sinani
31'
M. Mauri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Clodiense 2–0 Mori Santo Stefano

Clodiense beat Mori Santo Stefano 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 24, 2024.

Goals: I. Sinani (2'), M. Mauri (31').

The match was played at Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin in Chioggia.