Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mori Santo Stefano vs Cjarlins Muzane — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
L. Zandonatti 90+2'
F. Moraschi 71'
L. Belcastro 32'
G. Lucatti 12'
4/14/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Stadio Quercia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mori Santo Stefano22%
×Draw24%
Cjarlins Muzane54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mori Santo Stefano
0.99
Cjarlins Muzane
1.70

Cjarlins Muzane creates 72% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Mori Santo Stefano
0.76
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

allows per match

Mori Santo Stefano
2.24
Cjarlins Muzane
1.23

finishing

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par
Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mori Santo Stefano ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mori Santo Stefano or draw
46%
Mori Santo Stefano or Cjarlins Muzane
76%
Draw or Cjarlins Muzane
78%

Winning margin

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
8%
Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
63%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
26%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
8%
Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
82%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
51%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
29%
Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mori Santo Stefano at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.76 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mori Santo Stefano scores more
22%
level
24%
Cjarlins Muzane scores more
54%

Cjarlins Muzane at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
G. Lucatti
32'
L. Belcastro
71'
F. Moraschi
90+2'
L. Zandonatti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mori Santo Stefano vs Cjarlins Muzane

Cjarlins Muzane beat Mori Santo Stefano 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 14, 2024.

Goals: G. Lucatti (12'), L. Belcastro (32'), F. Moraschi (71'), L. Zandonatti (90+2').

The match was played at Stadio Quercia in Rovereto.