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Cjarlins Muzane vs Mori Santo Stefano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
S. Fyda 34'
L. Rech 53'
12/3/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Stadio Via Rizzolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane59%
×Draw23%
Mori Santo Stefano18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cjarlins Muzane
1.81
Mori Santo Stefano
0.90

Cjarlins Muzane creates 101% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
Mori Santo Stefano
0.53

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.26
Mori Santo Stefano
2.24

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par
Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

Mori Santo Stefano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw
82%
Cjarlins Muzane or Mori Santo Stefano
77%
Draw or Mori Santo Stefano
41%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
34%
Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
84%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
54%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
27%
Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
59%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
23%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
76%
Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

Mori Santo Stefano away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.53 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more
59%
level
23%
Mori Santo Stefano scores more
18%

Cjarlins Muzane at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
S. Fyda
50'
N. Cescatti
53'
L. Rech

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cjarlins Muzane vs Mori Santo Stefano

Cjarlins Muzane and Mori Santo Stefano drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on December 3, 2023.

Goals: S. Fyda (34'), L. Rech (53').

The match was played at Stadio Via Rizzolo in Carlino.