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Mori Santo Stefano vs Atletico Castegnato — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mori Santo Stefano
Mori Santo Stefano
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Castegnato
Atletico Castegnato
P. Costanzo 67'
1/28/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 21Stadio Quercia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mori Santo Stefano29%
×Draw24%
Atletico Castegnato47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mori Santo Stefano
1.23
Atletico Castegnato
1.65

Atletico Castegnato creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mori Santo Stefano
0.76
Atletico Castegnato
1.06

allows per match

Mori Santo Stefano
2.24
Atletico Castegnato
1.71

finishing

Mori Santo Stefano+0.00on par
Atletico Castegnato+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mori Santo Stefano ↓

Atletico Castegnato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mori Santo Stefano or draw
53%
Mori Santo Stefano or Atletico Castegnato
76%
Draw or Atletico Castegnato
71%

Winning margin

Mori Santo Stefano wins by 2+
12%
Atletico Castegnato wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Mori Santo Stefano 1+ goals
71%
Mori Santo Stefano 2+ goals
35%
Mori Santo Stefano 3+ goals
13%
Atletico Castegnato 1+ goals
81%
Atletico Castegnato 2+ goals
49%
Atletico Castegnato 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Mori Santo Stefano (draw refunded)
38%
Atletico Castegnato (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mori Santo Stefano at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

Atletico Castegnato away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mori Santo Stefano attack 0.76 + Atletico Castegnato defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.23

Atletico Castegnato attack 1.06 + Mori Santo Stefano defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mori Santo Stefano scores more
29%
level
24%
Atletico Castegnato scores more
47%

Atletico Castegnato at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Atletico Castegnato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
P. Costanzo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Mori Santo Stefano 0–1 Atletico Castegnato

Atletico Castegnato beat Mori Santo Stefano 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 28, 2024.

Goals: P. Costanzo (67').

The match was played at Stadio Quercia in Rovereto.